The finals scenario

NBL22 has provided us with twists and turns at every point, just when you thought you had a sense of how things would play out, the competition would surprise you.

Round 19 gave us more curveballs, with Adelaide shocking Perth in The Jungle and Tasmania keeping their Finals hopes alive against South East Melbourne.

It sets us up with a thrilling finish to the season with Round 21 set to decide the final standings and also the last spot in the Finals.

Here, we attempt to give a lay of the land, where teams stand, with the best and worst case scenarios that could play out for each side. This of course takes into account some assumptions, and will change throughout the round as games are played. 

Current ladder:

20 wins Melbourne 110.8% - 1 game to play

18 wins Sydney 103.6% - 2 games to play

17 wins Illawarra 106.6% - 2 games to play

16 wins Perth 105.7% - 2 games to play

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16 wins Tasmania 99.4% - 1 game to play

Melbourne United:

Best finish: Will finish in first place regardless of any results in Round 21.

Worst Result: Their semi-final opponent could be any of four teams so they will be watching with interest, particularly if the Wildcats lose both games and United drop their game to Tasmania. That would see United having to face the JackJumpers again after a confidence lifting win.

Sydney Kings:

Best Finish: Win both games in Round 21 and they will finish in second place and earn home court advantage in their three-game Semi-Final series.

Worst Result: If the Kings lose both games and Perth win both games, the Kings will be tied on 18 wins with the Hawks and Wildcats, but finish fourth on percentage and face ladder leaders Melbourne.

Illawarra Hawks:

Best Finish: Win both games in Round 21 and they will finish in second place and earn home court advantage in their three-game Semi-Final series.

Worst Result: Win either game and they will be safe in third place. If they lose twice, they can finish fourth if the Wildcats win twice.

Perth Wildcats:

Best Finish: Win both games and they can finish second if the Hawks also beat the Kings and Perth gain a percentage boost over the Hawks over the round. Win either one of their two games and their 36th straight playoff appearance is secured.

Worst Result: If the Wildcats lose both home games this weekend and Tasmania defeat Melbourne on Saturday, Perth’s record breaking finals run will be over.

Tasmania JackJumpers:

Best Finish: They can only finish fourth if they defeat Melbourne United and Perth lose both their games. Margins will not come into calculations in these scenarios.

Worst Result: Even if they defeat United, Perth still need to lose both games so where they finish is not in their control.